INDIA'S POPULATION IS GROWING AT A RECORD PACE

S. A. GOROKHOV

Candidate of Geographical Sciences

R. V. DMITRIEV

Postgraduate student of Moscow State University

India Keywords:, Population Census 2011

Population censuses in India, as in other countries, provide unique information for analyzing demographic and social processes. Covering almost the entire territory of the country, they have been held in India every decade since 1891. Thus, the 2011 census was the 15th in the entire history of India and the 7th after the country's independence. What is the information that demographers, economists, geographers, sociologists, and representatives of other fields of scientific knowledge can think about in the first statistical reports on the last census of the population of the populous giant of the South Asian subcontinent?

The main question that has stirred the minds of Indian scientists and politicians has been whether the truly colossal growth of the country's population, which was observed in the late XX - early XXI centuries, will continue at the same level.

DEMOGRAPHIC OFFENSIVE

According to the published data, the population of India as of 0 hours on March 1, 2011 is 1 billion. 210 million 193 thousand 422 people, including men-623 million 724 thousand 248, women-586 million 469 thousand 174 ¹. Thus, at present, India, which occupies only 2.4% of the land area, concentrates 17.5% of the world's population, which is comparable to the share of the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Japan combined. The average density of the Indian population is 382 persons/^km2, which is more than 7.5 times the global average.

Most of the forecasts of the population of India for 2011, which were made by scientists in India and abroad, were underestimated. The only exception was the UN forecast ².

Nevertheless, both Indian and foreign demographers agree on one thing: the absolute population growth of India, the maximum among all countries of the world, will bring it to the 1st place in the list of the most populous states in the near future (according to one version-by the 2nd quarter of the XXI century) ^.3 To a large extent, this is also due to the fact that the demographic policy of India's main "competitor" - China-is bearing fruit: in the first decade of the XXI century, the population growth of the Middle Kingdom was only about half of the corresponding indicator for India, which remained at the level of 1991-2001. According to the results of the 2010 census, published in April 2011, the population of the PRC grew to 1 billion 339 million 724 thousand 852 people, ⁴ or approximately 129.5 million more than in India.

Nevertheless, India was the pioneer of state demographic policy among the developing countries of the world. The state's efforts here have always been aimed at slowing down the country's population growth. The main methods of family planning in India were the promotion and distribution of contraceptives. In the 70s of the XX century, the Gandhi government began to actively carry out nasbandi sterilization of the population (in 1976-1977, 8.3 million Indians were sterilized), which caused public outrage and, ultimately, cost Gandhi the post of prime minister.

Subsequent Governments

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Table

Main characteristics of the Indian population in 1911-2011

Years	Population, million people	Population density, people/km2	Average annual growth rate, %	Number of women per 1000 men	Literacy, %
1911	252,1	82	0,56	964	5,92
1921	251,3	81	-0,03	955	7,16
1931	279,0	90	1,05	950	9,50
1941	318,7	103	1,34	945	16,10
1951	361,1	117	1,26	946	16,67
1961	439,2	142	1,98	941	24,02
1971	548,2	177	2,24	930	29,45
1981	683,3	216	2,23	934	36,23
1991	846,4	267	2,16	927	42,84
2001	1028,7	324	1,97	933	54,51
2011	1210,2	382	1,64	940	64,32

Sources: Provisional Population Tables. Census of India 2011. New Delhi, S. Narayan and Sons. 2011, p. 41, 67.

This sad experience was taken into account, and in India, a country with a democratic system, demographic policy has never been carried out so aggressively and violently again. This is the main difference between India and the People's Republic of China, where population growth was restricted by the state rather harshly. Therefore, although the rate of population growth in India, which peaked in the 1960s and 1970s, began to decline, it is happening very slowly.

India's average annual population growth rate (see table) They are still significantly higher than the corresponding global indicators (1.21% ⁵), i.e. every year there are an average of 18 million more Indians on our planet. In other words, every 5th baby is born on Indian territory. In the decade since the previous census, the country's population has grown by 181.5 million people, which is almost equal to the population of Pakistan (6th in the world in terms of population) more than the population of Bangladesh or Nigeria (7th and 8th in the world in terms of population, respectively).

Among the 10 leading countries in terms of the number of inhabitants living within their borders, India is currently on the 3rd place in terms of population growth (17.64% since the beginning of the XXI century), second only to Nigeria (26.84%) and Pakistan (24.78%).⁶. Such high values of demographic indicators contributed to the fact that over the century (1911-2011), the total population growth of India was the highest among all countries of the world, exceeding the Chinese by more than 50 million people (almost 958 million people). for India vs. 900 million for China)⁷.

In the age structure of the Indian population, 13.12% (158.8 million people) are children under 6 years of age (in 2001-15.93%), which means that the significant growth of the Indian population will slow down, but will continue in the future. This, according to UN demographers, will allow India to surpass China in population by almost 200 million people by 2050.8

WHY AREN'T THERE ENOUGH BRIDES?

The gender structure of the Indian population is traditionally characterized by a sharp predominance of men: 940 women per 1 thousand men (the global average is 984). However, over the past decade, the gender disparity in the population structure has slightly decreased (in 2001, there were 933 women per 1,000 men), which is estimated as a favorable indicator of improving the status of women in the country. In 2001-2011, the number of women in India increased by 18.12%, and men-by 17.19%.

At the same time, in China, as a result of the state policy of birth control, the opposite trend is observed: if in 2011 there were 944 women per 1,000 men in China, then ¹⁰ years later - only 9269. This is due to the fact that Chinese parents in a one-child family consider it more preferable to have a boy. According to demographers ' forecasts, an imbalance in the sex structure of the Chinese population may lead to the fact that by 2026, 40 million men aged 15 to 40 will not be able to start a family, which in the future is fraught with serious problems in the reproduction of the Chinese population.¹⁰

The gender structure of the population in India has its own regional characteristics. In the northern states, which are lagging behind in socio-economic development and are characterized by a low level of women's participation in public and economic life of society, the gender disparity-

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the concentration is higher than in the southern regions. So, in the state of Uttar Pradesh by 1 thousand. males account for 908 females, while in the south of the country, in Kerala-1084.

However, India's tender prospects are not as bright as they might seem at first glance. The recent widening gap in children under the age of 7 is a cause for concern. In this age cohort of the population, there are only 914 girls per 1,000 boys (927 in 2001), which may mean that the disparity in the sex structure of the population may increase in the future. So why have more boys been born in India in the last decade? To answer the question " Why?" First, we will answer the question " Where?".

Indeed, the bias towards the birth of boys in India is observed primarily in the northern states of the country. Due to the strong influence of Hindu traditions, this region is often referred to in India as the" saffron belt "(saffron is the traditional color of clothing for Hindu ascetics) or the" cow belt " (cow is a sacred animal of Hinduism). In Rajasthan, there are 883 girls per 1,000 boys under the age of 7 (909 in 2001), 899 in Uttar Pradesh, and even 830 in Haryana.¹¹

Experts believe that this is the result of a process called "Sanskritization", i.e. the assimilation of the values and customs of the lower castes by the lower castes. ¹² The fact is that many families from the lower and middle castes, who have reached the level of the middle class due to the economic success of the country, in order to increase their social status, begin to imitate Brahmin families in their behavior. This means that in order to marry off your daughter, you need to give her a ruinous dowry. In addition, girls must be brought up before marriage in a family and cannot go to work, as this is considered unworthy. As a result, for the middle class, a daughter becomes more and more expensive, and they prefer to abandon her birth. Thus, the combination of old caste values and new wealth proved explosive for the country's future.

ILLITERACY REMAINS A PROBLEM

India still has a high number of illiterate people, which seriously hinders its economic growth and requires a well-thought-out state policy in the social sphere. In the present century, a person who can read and write, as well as understand any of the country's languages, is considered literate in India. At the same time, the number of illiterates in independent India automatically includes children who have not reached a certain age (5 years-according to the recommendation of the developers of the 1951-1971 census; 7 years - all subsequent qualifications).

The problem of illiteracy is largely a legacy of India's colonial past: according to the 1951 census, only one in six Indians was literate. Over the years of independence, the literacy rate has increased significantly: in India at the beginning of the XXI century, every second person could already read and write. Just ten years later, in 2011, two out of every three residents of the country could "boast" of these skills. And when calculating the literacy rate by age group, this indicator increases even more: only one in four Indians aged 7 years and older is illiterate. However, the country has the largest number of illiterates in the world - almost 273 million.¹³

The main problem with literacy eradication in India is the huge gap between the high level of education in universities and private schools and the often appalling conditions in public schools (especially in rural areas).

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rural areas). For most Indians, it is impossible to get an education in private educational institutions because of the high cost of studying in them. Poor families are often forced to send their children to work rather than school, making India both the world's second - largest number of newly minted engineers and the first-largest number of school dropouts. As a result, there is a dangerous social disparity in access to education between rich and poor, men and women, and upper and backward castes.

The religious traditions of Hinduism, especially strong in the north of the country, also contribute to preserving the current situation in the field of education. Hinduism is not characterized by the veneration of book knowledge, which is so common in Judaism, Christianity, and even Buddhism, which means that there was no need for Hindus to learn to read and write. Therefore, the literacy rate of Hindus is lower than that of members of religious minorities in India (with the exception of Muslims).¹⁴. The Hindu tradition gives priority to shruti (listening), that is, chanting memorized sacred texts.

Moreover, in Hinduism, teaching lower-caste men and women to read the Vedas is considered a grave sacrilege. It is no coincidence that the proportion of privileged upper castes among university students is still disproportionately high. In this regard, the literacy rate in India among residents over the age of 7 varies dramatically by gender: for men, it is 82.14%, and for women-65.46%. Modern India faces an acute task of increasing women's participation in social production, and it is hardly possible to solve it without improving their educational level. But raising the literacy rate of women is one of the most effective ways to improve the social indicators of the country's population as a whole.

REGIONAL IMBALANCE

The 2011 Census showed that India's characteristic regional differences in demographic processes between the North and South of the country persist to this day. In the northern states of the country, which are dominated by Indo-European peoples*, population growth is significantly higher than in the southern states, which are inhabited by Dravidian ethnic groups. At the same time, the level of socio-economic development and quality of life is higher in the south of the country.

The poorest states in the country - Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, which are designated in India by the initial letters of their names with the abbreviation BIMARU (in Hindi this translates as "sick"), in 2011, 36.74% of Indians live (in 2001-35.59%)¹⁵. Uttar Pradesh alone concentrates the population of the country. almost 16.5% of the population of India, or 199.6 million people, is the largest administrative and territorial unit in the world by population. If Uttar Pradesh were an independent state, it would be divided into two parts:-

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* The peoples of Northern India (Hindustans, Bengalis, Punjabis, Rajthans, etc.) belong to the Indo-Iranian branch of the Indo-European ethno-linguistic community, which also included the ancestors of the Iranian and the vast majority of present-day European peoples, including Greek, Celtic, Romance, Germanic, Slavic and Baltic (editor's note).

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lil would be fifth with Brazil in the list of the most populous countries in the world. At the same time, the share of the country's population in four southern states: Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala decreased from 21.72% to 20.77% during the inter-census period.

Uneven population growth in the northern and southern states of India leads to an aggravation of the problem of redistribution of mandates in the country's parliament, which, according to the law, must be adjusted in accordance with the data of each qualification. The southern states, which are more economically developed but have a low population growth rate, fear that the BIMARU states will increase their political influence in parliament at their expense. In this regard, in 2002, it was decided that the total share of seats from each state in the legislative body of the country will remain unchanged until 2026.

With an average population growth of 17.6% in India over the past decade, in BIMARU it ranges from 25.1% in Bihar to 20.1% in Uttar Pradesh, while in the south it varies from 15.7% in Karnataka to 4.9% in Kerala (almost like in Europe).¹⁶. Indian demographers estimate that BIMARU States will account for about 50% of the country's population growth from 2001 to 2026, while the south will account for only 12%. Children under 6 years of age make up 17.9% of the population in north Bihar, but only 9.5% in south Tamil Nadu. However, the general trend has been that the proportion of children in India's population has declined over the past decade in all states except Muslim Jammu and Kashmir.

Already in the near future, the population of the southern states will reach stabilization. It will continue to age, and by 2025, it is projected to reach a median age of 44 years (as in modern Japan).¹⁷. At the same time, in the north, the population will remain very young, with a median age of 26 years. In 15-20 years, the more developed economy of the southern states will need workers from the North, who will be able to compensate for the aging population in the south. However, this can lead to serious problems, not least because of the low literacy rate of the BIMARU population. So, in the south of the country, 93% of the population is literate in Kerala, in Tamil Nadu - more than 80%, while in Uttar Pradesh-69%, and in Bihar - even 64%. Regional female literacy rates are even more different: in Kerala, 92% of women are literate, in Tamil Nadu - almost 74%, in Bihar-53%, in Rajasthan-less than 53% ¹⁸.

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In recent decades, India has become one of the most dynamically developing countries in the world. Economic growth in India in 2011, expected to be around 9-10% per year, suggests an Indian economic "miracle".

However, as can be seen from the 2011 census data, the "miracle" can only take place if the government of the country manages to solve the social problems facing India in a short time. And the main question facing the leadership is whether it will be able to turn the demographic factor, which significantly hinders the development of the state at present, into the main factor of economic growth.

The achievement of this goal is real, and it is greatly facilitated by the fact that in India in recent decades the attitude towards its demographic potential has begun to change. Now the multi-million population is perceived not as a "demographic bomb" laid in the foundation of the Indian state. After the economic reforms of the 1990s, the country's high population is seen as a source of wealth, a necessary source of workers and consumers for the development of the Indian and indeed the entire global economy.

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* The median age divides the population into two equal parts: one is younger and the other is older than that age (editor's note).

¹ Provisional Population Tables. Census of India 2011. New Delhi, S. Narayan and Sons. 2011, p. 160.

^{Mahmood A.} 2, Kundu A. Demographic Projections for India 2006-2051: Regional variations - in: India's water future: Scenarios and issues, Colombo, Sri Lanka, International Water Management Institute, 2009, p. 107-108. Eleventh Five Year Plan (2007-2012). Inclusive Growth. Volume I. New Delhi, Oxford University Press. 2008, p. 75. World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database - http://esa.un. org/unpp/

^{Gorokhov S. A.} 3, Dmitriev R. V. Paradoxes of urbanisation in modern India / / Geografiya v shkole, 2009, No. 2.

⁴ Website of the State Tax Service of the People's Republic of China. Communiqufl of the National Bureau of Statistics of People's Republic of China on Major Figures of the 2010 Population Census. 29.04.2011 http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/newsandcom ingevents/t20110429_402722516.htm

⁵ Calculated by: World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (accessed 24.03.2011).

⁶ Provisional Population Tables.., p. 39.

^{Bazhenova E. S.} 7 1 300 000 000. Population of China: Strategiya razvitiya i demograficheskoi politiki [Development strategy and demographic Policy]. 2010, p. 304.

⁸ World Population Prospects...

9 Provisional Population Tables.., p. 79.

^{Nilekani N.} 10 Obraz novoi Indii: Evolyutsiya transformiruyushchikh idei [The Image of New India: The Evolution of Transformative Ideas]. 2010, p. 58.

¹¹ Provisional Population Tables.., p. 88.

^{Lews E.} 12 bezglyadki na bogov: Vzlet sovremennoy Indii [Without Looking at the Gods: The Rise of Modern India]. 2010, p. 328.

¹³ Provisional Population Tables.., p. 102.

¹⁴ Social, Economic and Educational Status of the Muslim Community of India. A Report. New Delhi, 2006, p. 52.

¹⁵ Provisional Population Tables.., p. 47.

¹⁶ Ibidem, p. 54.

^{Nilekani N.} 17 Decree. soch., pp. 60-61.

¹⁸ Provisional Population Tables.., p. 110.