The Commonwealth of Independent States: the Present and the Future

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Опубликовано в библиотеке: 2014-04-29
Источник: "БЕЛАРУСЬ В МИРЕ" No.004 12-01-97

After the October 1997 summit of the heads of the CIS states in Chisinau, it became clear that the problems of the CIS are not insignificant, as was stated earlier, but rather substantial. Now, it is important not to go to extremes, endlessly criticising each other and the Commonwealth as a whole and not offering anything instead. Criticism of the Commonwealth's past is not as important as a clearly formulated concept of its future. The development of such a concept is possible only if it is based on an impartial analysis of what happened in the past and detailed explanation of what prevents us from moving forward.



First of all, various forces within the Commonwealth often come out against integration, as this process implies the transfer of part of the sovereignty to supra-national structures in return for benefits from economic integration. The experience of the other integrational structures, first of all that of the European Union, shows that it is impossible to deepen the integrational process without transferring some part of authority to international structures.



The leadership of a number of Commonwealth countries is not ready to delegate even some part of their authority for the sake of well-being of their peoples. Moreover, the CIS, which, under Viskuli's agreements, had been created to preserve centuries-long ties, was from its very beginning evolving into an instrument for a "civilised divorce"-that is, was used to cut these ties, to make an absolute value of the sovereignty of each country. Despite the fact that almost 900 inter- state and intergovernmental documents were signed in the CIS, practically none of these was signed by all the countries of the CIS.



The position of the CIS countries toward the integrational processes to a large extent depends on the political situation and on the state of the society in these countries. The split and intense political struggle are not favourable for the CIS countries' involvement in an integrational association. Meantime, this is the situation typical of many CIS countries.



The assessments of the processes taking place in the CIS countries, and proposed ways to come out of the present situation are not well- founded from the point of view of social sciences. This is well seen in opposite views on the future of the Commonwealth among the scientists and practitioners. Some believe that through integration of the post-Soviet countries' economies it is largely possible to solve the most complex problems in these countries. The others think that attempts to re-unite former Soviet republics, based on the old principles, will lead to the preservation of backward technologies, to significant financial losses and aggravation of the problems these countries are experiencing.



One cannot ignore the fact that Western countries are far from being enthusiastic about possible creation and strengthening of the new economic and military-political union on the post-Soviet space. The West would not like to have the Commonwealth as a strong geopolitical rival and economic competitor. And they are in position to use quite considerable means indeed to hinder the process of the further strengthening of the CIS.



Nevertheless, talks about the uselessness and, therefore, hopelessness of the Commonwealth do not cor-respond to the reality. Despite all its shortcomings, certain system for the exchange of information, including that at the highest level, have been formed. Also, numerous legal arrangements on co-operation in various fields has been worked on. Joint economic projects have made it possible to preserve most of the industrial potential of and mutually beneficial ties among the CIS countries, and to pave the way to the modern civilised world.



The world's practice convincingly shows that integrational processes are fruitful if countries are integrating voluntarily and, when so doing, they are ready to follow agreed decisions to improve vital institutions of the society and raise standards of living of their citizens. At the same time, the process of integration should not conflict with that of national revival and state- building in the CIS countries. This is confirmed by the experience of the European Union, as well as by our own experience in the Commonwealth, and later in the Union of Belarus and Russia, and the "union of four" (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia).



The unions of the "two" and "four" do not obstruct integrational processes in the CIS; on the contrary, these unions are helpful for integration. Moreover, the very existence of the CIS provides greater opportunities in searching the ways and forms for more effective integrational ties. This resulted in the creation of the Union of Belarus and Russia and the signing of the agreement by the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and the Russian Federation on the deepening of integration in economic and humanitarian spheres.



The first concrete results that prove high effectiveness of the real work on expanding and deepening mutually beneficial co-operation among states within these unions have already been received. The removal of customs barriers, creation of favourable conditions for restoration of the broken economic ties and a number of other measures that were taken within the framework of the Union of Belarus and Russia-all these have produced a positive effect on the development of the economy and improved conditions for the solution of social problems. This is well seen in the Republic of Belarus, since there the scale and size of the tasks are smaller than in Russia, and, accordingly, results can be produced quicker and more clearly. The implementation of the agreement of the "four" has also yielded certain positive results.



This means that a flexible mechanism of co-operation is being formed in the CIS, a mechanism that allows to take into account individual countries' readiness for and interest in integration. As a result, three levels of integration have now emerged: the first, and the lowest, is the common level for all members of the CIS; the second, a higher one, is among Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia; and third, which is the highest-between Belarus and Russia.



The forms of co-operation tested in the Union of Belarus and Russia will be continued during the process of implementation of the agreement of the "four", and can be used in future to gradually transform the entire Commonwealth into a highly effective integrational union.



Now, the problems of the Commonwealth are actively discussed. A. Lukashenko, the President of the Republic of Belarus, expressed his concern about the development of integrational processes in the CIS in an article in the Sovietskaya Belorussia newspaper. In his statement, a number of specific proposals to improve the Commonwealth were put forward. In Belarus, a draft concept on the development of the CIS has been developed. This draft will be presented for consideration at the meeting of the Council of Heads of the CIS states. The main purpose of the concept is to strengthen and develop the Commonwealth, to improve the structure and work of its institutions, and to broaden and deepen economic integration.



What should be done in order to raise the viability and effectiveness of the CIS? First of all, it is necessary to include into our agreements concrete and realistic commitments, pass over to practical moves in order to identify and make use of unrealised opportunities. To do this, the draft concept of the CIS development suggests an analysis of the CIS legal basis, so that solutions proposed earlier but still viable, and mechanisms for their implementation under the present circumstances could be identified, along with those solutions that have become inappropriate and, thus, should be recognised void.



Secondly, it is proposed to create a permanent commission made up of representatives of all the CIS member states with the authority to monitor implementation of the decisions made in the CIS. Such a commission will have, among others, the authority to take appropriate measures if these decisions are not carried out. Besides, each state should set up a national mechanism that will regulate, according to national procedures, the fulfilment of obligations undertaken within the CIS.

Special attention requires the issue of increasing the effectiveness of inter-state structures that deal with different sectors of the economy. About 60 structures of this sort have been set up in the CIS. The Inter-state Economic Committee of the CIS's Economic Union should co-ordinate their activity in the interests of all the Commonwealth states. However, the potential of the Inter-state Economic Committee is far from being fully used: this institution should seriously take on the strengthening of the Commonwealth's common market through introduction of the most-favoured-nation regime in trade between the CIS countries. This can also be done by lowering tax burden on domestic manufacturers, as well as by protecting CIS's domestic markets from low-quality imports. Here, the interests of the Commonwealth states seem to be coinciding.



The work of the other Commonwealth's structures should also be improved. For example, how one can talk about the effectiveness of the work of such an important structure as the CIS's Economic Court if its decisions are not binding but only recommendatory? The prospects for development will remain just prospects if the energy and potential of many existing CIS co-ordinating committees are not fully used within the optimally organised Commonwealth structures. In connection with this, it should be noted that there is an objective need to reform the Executive Secretariat of the CIS. It should be transformed from an essentially monitoring structure into one that is a really organising and co-ordinating body. To do this, it is necessary to develop an adequate legal basis, assigning appropriate functions to the Executive Secretariat through amendments to the Charter of the Commonwealth.



It has already become clear that another reason for lack of desired results from the inter-state integration within the CIS is that the potential of business entities is not fully exploited. This means that the integration of business entities into complete industrial complexes to solve specific tasks should be strongly promoted at the governmental level. The forms of integration may be of various kinds-financial-industrial groups, trans-national companies, banking- industrial consortiums, joint ventures.



An effective co-ordination among our countries in the area of foreign policy is urgent. The silent agreement with the actions and intentions of political forces in the West is inappropriate. It is also extremely important to co- ordinate foreign economic policies, something that is now practically absent. It is absolutely clear that actions concerning the entry of the CIS countries into the World Trade Organisation should be co-ordinated, and appropriate legal norms to jointly protect economies of the CIS countries should be developed. Membership in the WTO brings tangible benefits to countries that are at about the same level of development. Nations with the economies in crisis, like CIS member states, should hardly speed up their entry into the WTO, agreeing in return to all conditions that are laid down. For example, some CIS countries, Belarus in particular, are said to supposedly providing excessive support to the agricultural sector. To deny such a support for the sake of joining the WTO would mean to destroy our own agricultural sector.



Serious attention should be paid to the work on providing for a common information space of the CIS. The last six years showed that our peoples are- as ever before-sympathetic to each other's problems, and wish to know more about them.



The viability of the Commonwealth will be determined by the strength of internal impulses toward the preservation and development of integration, as well as by politicians' will to intensify co-operation and their wisdom.



The initiatives of A. Lukashenko, President of Belarus, show that our country longs to raise co-operation between the CIS countries to the level of the problems we are facing now. This is in our interest and in the interest of all the Commonwealth, since our joint efforts must result in the improvement of the standards of living of our people.

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© Valentin Velichko, Minister of CIS Affairs of the Republic of Belarus () Источник: "БЕЛАРУСЬ В МИРЕ" No.004 12-01-97

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