by Academician Robert NIGMATULIN, Director of Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS

The word "ocean" appeared first in the Greek mythology as a name of the deity of the greatest world river washing the Earth. Our forefathers believed that a boundary dividing the worlds of life and death was hidden beyond the boundless water space. Its many-sided image always excited men of arts. But only scientists are destined to disclose secrets of "its gloomy depths". Academician Robert Nigmatulin, Director of Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, told our correspondent Yevgeniya Sidorova about the ocean as an object of comprehensive research, which covers 70 percent of the Earth and affects its life.

In 2003-2009, the research vessels of Shirshov Institute of Oceanology undertook 22 voyages to different regions of the World Ocean.

—Mr. Nigmatulin, you and your colleagues are studying the mysterious world, which arouses certain timidity in a majority of people. It is enormous and seems inconceivable. Not for nothing the outstanding Russian poet of the 20th century Vladimir Mayakovsky noted: "The ocean is a matter of imagination. "

—A fine image. We can mention here also such words of Mayakovsky: "No matter where you are—in the middle of the Black Sea or in the ocean—no shores are seen, the waves in the ocean and at sea are identical, but the feeling that America is in front and Europe is behind is just the ocean." But to be serious, the ocean for the mankind was from time immemorial both a source of food and an important transport route. Today we get more and more minerals from its bottom. At the same time, the ocean is "the father" of many natural disasters such as destructive storms and tsunami. The said observation is by no means a fruit of imagination, and today we are just obliged to know more about the ocean.

— The range of scientific problems in which members of your institute are engaged is very extensive. Could you single out priority directions?

—Since its foundation in 1945, our institute "follows the course" laid down by the resolution of the Presidium of the USSR Academy of Sciences, which prescribed "to carry out studies of the ocean and seas based on the existing notion of the unity of physical, chemical, biological and geological processes taking place in seas and oceans". Of course, the object matter of special interest of specialists are resources at the bottom of the world ocean (oil, gas, gas hydrates, metal ores). To evaluate their reserves and rational use, it is necessary to get information of all kinds. Earthquake and tsunami forecasts are another challenge. National scientists achieved substantial successes in this field. Apart from the aforesaid, there are problems connected with deterioration of the ecological situation in the internal seas (influence of invading species, pollution, etc.). And finally, the role of the ocean in the formation of a global climate on the planet is a subject of paramount importance.

— You have mentioned earthquake and tsunami forecasts. What methods are now used to predict time and place of an impending event?

—To predict earthquakes, occurring in places of convergence (collision) of lithospheric plates, it is important to carry out seismic sounding in a region of a would-be event. When relative movement of plates is realized at the expense of plastic deformations of a boundary layer, separating them, instruments detect intensive noises, but no destructive cataclysms are expected. On the contrary, apprehensions of specialists are caused by "seismic calm", which is indicative of growth and accumulation of elastic deformations (as in a compressed spring) of shearing stresses. If the ultimate strength of a solid phase is exceeded, there follows its destruction, and the accumulated elastic energy turns into kinetic energy. Under a vertical displacement of the bottom (rise or fall to some dozens of centimeters on a

Distribution of organic carbon on the Earth.

rather large area of about a dozen kilometers), the latter is transferred to water, and a water column of several kilometers wide and high starts rising. Then there appear two diverging waves. Near the coast, where the depth is considerably lower, the water velocity increases reaching 7-10 m/s. It is called tsunami, which can cause dreadful destruction like the tragedy on the Sumatra Island in 2004.

The so-called earthquakes of the tsunami origin take place in subduction zones, where an oceanic plate moves under a continental or insular plate. Today scientists are working on a system, which will warn of an imminent event. It includes seismic sounding and satellite monitoring of ocean level disturbances. But supersensitive sensors, which are installed at the bottom in convergence regions of lithospheric plates and register pressure vacillations caused by the change of water magnitude, are most effective. The appropriate records are transmitted by cable or radio communication means to an analytical center, where the data are analyzed by computer and afterwards there follows a danger signal.

But for tsunami forecasts, it is necessary to predict time and place of an earthquake, to make correct assessment of its energy and calculations of that part of its energy, which will be transferred to water. This component depends on the area of movements at the bottom, the velocity of a vertical blow and the rate of a vertical displacement. The direction of a giant wave spreading can be calculated by mathematical modeling.

— Work of the national oceanologists, who predicted the earthquake in the area of the Kuril Islands* in 2006, is an example of a timely prognosis, isn't it?

—Really, in the course of observations of many years, national specialists revealed "a seismic gap" in the central segment of the Kuril Islands, which testified to accumulation of elastic energy. An adequate mechanical model of lithospheric plates and distribution of mechanical parameters in the subduction zone allowed to give a medium-term prognosis of a powerful earthquake, which took place on November 15, 2006. An aftershock (a repeated seismic shock of a relatively minor intensity) was predicted too; it was conditioned by the fact that the approaching plate "passed" a state of equilibrium and after a while returned, thus causing an earthquake and tsunami "with an opposite sign" (in similar cases, the tidal wave is followed by an ebb wave and vice versa).

* See: N. Laverov, L. Lobkovsky, B. Baranov, R. Mazova, B. Karp, "Sumatra Disaster: Lessons and Prognoses", Science in Russia. No. 1, 2007.-Ed.

Global heat circulation on the Earth surface.

— The urgency of research due to the latest tectonic movements is evident. But of no small importance is accumulation of information on geological history of different regions, for example, the Central Arctic uplands*. Are members of your institute working also on this problem ?

—The collected data can serve as a weighty argument today in dealing with a complex geopolitical problem. We mean the greatest possible expansion of the legally fixed zone of Russian economic interests on the shelf.

In 1982, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea was adopted, according to which the external borders of the economic territory of coastal states pass 200 miles from the shore. In case of a vast shelf, these borders can be "moved away" to 350 miles. However, there is an alternative, which allows additional expansion of the said zone: if there is a natural continuation of continental borders in the ocean in the form of massive continental uplands, plateaus and other geotectonic structures, which, together with these borders, form a whole over a period of geological history. Such exceptional situation has formed in the central part of the Arctic Ocean, where the Lomonosov ridge, Mendeleev and Alpha uplands as well as the hollows of Submariners and Makarov can be considered structures of a natural continuation of Eurasian borders. But to get a direct proof of this fact, it is necessary to undertake a deep drilling to several kilometers in the said region, which will take a lot of time.

The RF Government set a task to the Russian Academy of Sciences to trace the geological evolution of the structures in the central part of the Arctic Ocean based on the paleotectonic reconstructions of the Arctic Region starting from the Devonian up to the present time. Our work should result in substantiation of a new external border of the Russian continental shelf in the Arctic Region. Our institute is a leading organization, headed by Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician Nikolai Lave-rov and RAS Corresponding Member Leonid Lobkovsky.

—Many countries try to get the right to develop mineral resources in the inner parts of the Arctic basin outside the modern continental shelf. How large are reserves of mineral resources in this zone?

—By estimates, approximately 20 percent of the world reserves of oil and gas are concentrated on the continental shelf and slopes of the Arctic seas. Generally, it should be

* See: Yu. Leonov, "Important Phase of Polar Studies", Science in Russia, No. 1, 2010.-Ed.

Streams of CO₂ between the ocean and atmosphere.

taken into consideration that there are approximately 60 Gt (Gt is equal to 1 bln tons) of organic carbon in the ocean (just as on the land), but only 0.3 Gt/year form a sediment (99 percent on the shelf, continental slopes and their feet). These sediments, which have been forming for millions of years, contain oil and gas, whose global extraction makes up 4 and 2 Gt/year respectively.

—It turns out that the quantity of the newly formed carbon and that of the extracted one for the same period are comparable. Tell me, please, about modern research devoted to the carbon cycle.

—Spreading of suspended substance, phytoplankton (chlorophyll and primary biological products) and zoo-plankton (secondary products), is one of the subjects in ocean studies. It is possible to determine their quantities in surface waters by optical measurements from cosmic satellites, and at depths by probes, samplers and traps.

Spreading of suspension, phytoplankton and zooplank-ton in the ocean is not uniform, and sometimes figures differ greatly. For example, concentrations are high in continental waters and are lower in zones far from continents and islands. According to the theory of Academician Alexander Lisitsyn (1994), in the first case particles of organic and inorganic substances with the river outflow get to a kind of a filter, which precipitates and processes the suspended matter. In the open ocean, there prevails an eolian way of their delivery, and a part of dust, coming with air flows from African deserts and not precipitated in the Atlantic regions, reaches South America. At the ocean bottom these particles keep information about processes, which took place thousands and millions of years ago.

The ocean and seas are essentially biochemical reactors, in which by means of photosynthesis new generations of phytoplankton and a chain of its different species are produced. By estimates of our specialists Valery Peresypkin, Yevgeny Romankevich and Alexander Vetrov, all Drs. Sc. (Geol. & Mineral.), the annual productivity of primary products in terms of organic carbon mass makes up approximately 60 Gt/year. In addition, approximately 1 Gt/year is supplied by the bottom flora.

Phytoplankton is food for phytophagous zooplankton, which produces 6 Gt of carbon annually, which in its turn is "a building material" for bigger representatives of the animal world, which belong to a higher level of food chain and form "a pyramid of masses". The main part of organic substance is mineralized in a water column to CO₂, and only 0.3 Gt of carbon is accumulated annually.

This cycle takes place rather quickly. The ocean "digests" much more organic substance a year than "preserves" it in different forms. Thus, our specialists have calculated that carbon mass of phytoplankton as a whole does not exceed 0.4 Gt, that of bottom fauna-0.6 Gt, bacteria-0.3 Gt, zooplankton-0.4 Gt and bottom flora-0.1 Gt (of course, their wet weight is about 20 times more). The ocean

"bears" 50 Gt of carbon in suspension and 1,000 Gt in solution, including 100 Gt as a part of carbon dioxide, which is 50 times more than in the atmosphere. It should be noted that scientists constantly amplify the above-mentioned figures. Ambiguity of the existing estimations is connected with variability of biological productivity of the ocean, including the primary productivity. As discussed above, distribution of concentrations of different suspended matters and biogenic elements often has narrow gradient zones or peaks (fronts): "splashes" taking place here in the content of substances are by orders of magnitude higher than background indicators.

—How do you explain this phenomenon ?

—This phenomenon occurs both in time and in space. Usually abnormal peaks are connected with seasonal processes in marine ecosystems or with upwellings*, i.e. rising currents, which originated, in particular, due to a bottom profile. The latter supply biogenic elements from deep waters to the photic** layer, such as carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus, a substrate for new products of zooplankton and bacterial plankton. It should also be noted that much the same quantities of organic carbon, approximately 60 Gt/year, are formed both in the ocean and on dry land.

—It is obvious that it includes also "contribution " of hydrocarbons, in particular, methane?

—According to studies of Academician Mikhail Iva-nov from the RAS Institute of Microbiology named after S. Vinogradsky and the staff member of our institute Alla Lein, Dr. Sc. (Geol. & Mineral.), 0.015 Gt/year of biogenic methane is formed on the shelf and 0.005 Gt/year is "supplied" by organisms, living in the upper layer of the ocean. Almost all this gas (0.02 Gt) gets into the atmosphere unlike abiogenic CH₄, "consumed" by marine microorganisms and rising from mud volcanoes, sedimentary layers of continental slopes and depths of the Earth. Methane dissolves badly in water, therefore its mass makes up only 0.05 Gt in ocean and 5 Gt in the atmosphere.

The ample quantity of this hydrocarbon is found in the ocean in the form of gas hydrate, or a solid clathrate*** solution in water—and remains in such aggregative state at high (above 25 bar) pressure and positive temperatures (6°C at 40 bar and up to 20°С at 250 bar). One cubic meter of this ice-like substance contains CH₄ mass, occupying under normal conditions (1 bar and 20°C) 160 m³. According to some estimates, methane gas hydrates contain more than a half of organic carbon on our planet.

—Indeed, colossal reserves! According to a number of experts, the mankind will be concerned with the development of these resources in the not so distant future.

—Development of gas hydrates is an enormous challenge, which conceals, apart from technological problems, a global environmental hazard. In fact, if great masses of methane are released from a solid phase passing collection systems, this will change the atmospheric composition and increase solar energy absorption, which will greatly affect the climate.

— Your observation is very important, as we have no sufficient information on the problems of gas hydrate production. Speaking about resource potential of the ocean: Are there ore deposits at the ocean bottom, which are of interest for practical use?

—In certain localities at a depth of 4-5 km, the ocean bottom is covered with crusts or "cobbles" (10-50 cm), which contain huge masses of metals. Such formations are called concretions. They consist of ferro-manganese oxy-hydroxides, which are studied by Gleb Baturin and Alexander Dubinin, both Drs. Sc. (Geol. & Mineral.), and their colleagues. It is well-known that concretions "are fed" also at the expense of silt waters. The distribution areas of deposits in the pelagic zone of oceans coincide with areas of minimum sedimentation rates, and thus their formation is not connected with a flow of lithogenic and biogenic substances to the bottom.

Slow-growing concretions are located at a distance from continents in pelagic hollows at a depth of 4,000-6,000 m. Specialists estimate their reserves at 100-1,500 Gt. Apart from manganese and iron, they are enriched with cerium, thorium, thallium, molybdenum, copper, nickel, platinum, zinc and lead. A bulk of cobalt on the Earth is concentrated here. In addition to this valuable element, manganese, platinum and other metals will be probably extracted from concretions in the near future.

In the Pacific Ocean the main ore deposits are located in the North-eastern hollow (an area of Clarion-Clipperton fractures), the North-western hollow (south-west of the Hawaiian Islands) and in the Southern and Guatemalan hollows. In the Atlantic Ocean the most productive concretion fields are known in the Cape, North-American and Canary hollows. Important areas are found also in the Indian Ocean hollows. Concretion sediments are studied on the shelf of the Baltic Sea (the gulfs of Finland, Riga and Bothnia) and the White Sea. In 2006, when Russia was experiencing a shortage of manganese ores, 7,000 t of this raw material were mined at the bottom of the Gulf of Finland, while only 5,000 t were extracted on dry land.

Renewable resources are the main peculiarity of the described ferro-manganese concretions, as their formation in the ocean continues even today in contradistinction to the "tinned" land deposits, which were formed in the past geological epochs.

—Of great importance for science are the phenomena, which have been inherited from the past geological epochs, when living conditions on the Earth differed essentially from current conditions. In particular, the climate was different, but the mankind is extremely concerned with reasons of its change. Certainly it is impossible to answer this question without taking into account the ocean and its impact.

* See: M. Flint, "The Black Sea: Problems and Prospects", Science in Russia, No. 4, 2007. -Ed.

** Surface layer of water in the ocean, which contains sufficient light for photosynthesis.-Ed.

*** Clathrate compounds are substances, which occupy an intermediate position between solid solutions and true chemical compounds.-Ed.

—Climatic changes and influence of anthropogenic factors on it are really the most urgent environmental problem under discussion today. The chart of global atmospheric temperature vacillations on the Earth surface (equal to the arithmetic mean value of air temperatures measured at many thousands of meteorological stations of the planet) show, that climate warming (0.75°C for 100 years) took place during the 20th century, which intensified in 1950 making up 0.5°C (growth rate = 10^-2 °C/year) for the last 50 years. This process has different consequences. In particular, the level of the World Ocean is rising, and the area of the Arctic ice coating is reducing. However, in order to assess correctly the existing phenomena, it is necessary to consider different natural factors and, of course, interaction of the ocean and atmosphere.

The content of the so-called greenhouse gases (H₂O, CO₂, CH₄) in the atmosphere, which promote solar energy absorption, is largely determined by processes taking place in the World Ocean. The latter absorbs warmth from the atmosphere in some regions and, on the contrary, in other regions it gives out warmth and, according to Sergei Gulev, Dr. Sc. (Phys. & Math.), this zonality, as well as energy fluxes, changes in time in line with daily and seasonal fluctuations of temperature. The ocean evaporation makes up on average approximately 70 cm/year, but in some regions it is close to zero and in tropical areas it reaches 250 cm/year.

The ocean contains 50 times more carbon dioxide than dry land, and therefore insignificant fluctuations in its "breathing" can change the situation radically.* Meanwhile, absorption (isolation) of CO₂ differs from region to region within the range of ± 100 t/km² a year. In the middle and subpolar latitudes it mainly "takes out" CO₂ from the atmosphere and "returns" it in the tropical latitudes. In other words, the heat and mass exchange of the ocean and atmosphere varies in time and space.

In early 1980s, RAS Corresponding Member Sergei Lappo suggested a three-dimensional model of global circulation of cold and heated waters in the ocean. Basically, it is a slow current—1 cm/s (for comparison, the mean velocity of Golf Stream is 20 cm/s), but it flows to great distances. Warm water moves in upper layers, and a rather cold compensating stream, flowing in opposite direction, deep in the ocean. This complex system, sometimes called "a belt", unites oceans and plays a key role in mass and heat transfer on the planet. For example, the surface currents of the North Atlantic Regions (first of all, of Golf Stream) determine to a considerable extent the climate in Western Europe and Scandinavia, making it milder as compared with the continental regions: for example, winter in Stockholm is warmer than in Kiev.

The water discharge in Golf Stream near Florida Strait is equal to 25-30 Sv (svedrups**), not far from Cape Hatteras—80 Sv, and in the current directed from west to east (from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean via the Drake Strait separating South America from Antarctica) is equal to 120-160 Sv on average. The current moves mainly to the western direction, from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean. But it turns out that there are zones, where the movement is opposite to the main direction, apparently due to circulations conditioned by the bottom relief. In other words, hydrodynamics of the ocean is extremely complicated. The Vema Channel in a region bordering upon Brazil from the east can serve as an example.

This channel which is 20 m wide and 700 m long, crosses Rio Grande ridge from south to north. It rises to 500 m over the ocean bottom, and its depth here is 4,700 m. The research headed by Yevgeny Morozov, Dr. Sc. (Phys. & Math.), has shown that synoptical vortexes, which take place from time to time in surface waters over the Channel Wim (to the depth of 300 m), determine the water current direction. The latter can be different but on average there is a weak current to the south ( 1 -2 cm/s) at the expense of large-scale anticyclonic circulation. In lower layers (300-1,200 m), waters move to the north at a speed of = 2 cm/s. The deep layers (1,200-3,700 m) move again to the south at a speed of = 5 cm/s. Finally, just near the bottom (3,700-4,700 m), cold water (below 2°C) streams rush to the north. In the channel at a depth of 4,200-4,700 m the speed of the current is = 30 cm/s, and, as a result, approximately 70 percent of cold and thick bottom water of the World Ocean pass through an extremely narrow (as compared with a distance between South America and Africa) corridor.

The question of whether the present-day climate warming affects these deep layers presents one of the most important problems of climatology. You see, they can become the main long-term heat source from the atmosphere, as the ocean mass is 1,000 times and its heat capacity 3,500 times higher. For the last 50 years it has become obvious that its waters are monotonously warmed up. The World Ocean level rises at a rate of 3 mm a year, which is equally conditioned by getting of masses of continental ice into it and by thermal expansion of water. This fact greatly excites island states.

— The problem of polar deglaciation was discussed anxiously at the UN International Conference on Global Warming held in the Danish capital on December 7-18, 2009. Many specialists tie up this problem with human intervention in the nature. Do you agree with such point of view?

—It is difficult to give a simple answer to this question, as we have at our disposal conflicting facts, and therefore a serious analysis is required for their estimation. Indeed, today polynias are formed even in the Arctic Regions-the fact which nobody could imagine some dozens of years ago. From 1980 to 2007, the area of ice cover decreased from 8 to 4.5 mln km² (though it increased in the last two years and reached 5.5 mln km² in 2009). If we refer to geological history, we will see that 25,000 years ago the ocean

* See: O. Sorokhtin, "Global Warming and Its Causes:  Real and Imagined", Science in Russia, No. 2, 2010.-Ed.

**1 svedrup = 10⁶ m³/s; a unit of oceanic water discharge adopted in oceanology.— Auth.

Change of the World Ocean level for 140,000 years.

level was 120 m lower than today and it was rising at a rate of 8-10 mm/year in the absence of the anthropogenic factor during 15,000 years.

Many specialists believe (and present theoretical calculations as a proof) that anthropogenic emission of CO₂, methane and dust at this stage can already affect the global ecosystem of the Earth, the more so against the background of cutting down of forests, the green mass of which can "process" carbon dioxide. The logic of scientists is as follows. It is well known that stability of the atmospheric composition is provided by balanced natural flows. Low growth of CO₂ concentration leads to equally low increase of air temperature. But, as a consequence, water evaporation intensifies, water vapor concentration increases in the surface layer, and temperature rises at a rate of = 10^-2 °C/year, thus creating a more noticeable effect. The studies carried out by Academician Georgy Golitsyn and RAS Corresponding Member Igor Mokhov from the Obukhov Institute of Physics of the Atmosphere showed that concurrently with air heating in the surface layer approximately by 1° C, the temperature in mesopause decreased by 40° С at a height of 70-80 km*.

We know that CO₂ concentration has been steadily growing for the last 250 years. However, it has also been established that 60-70 mln years ago it was twice higher than today (700 ppm), and the mean temperature at the ocean bottom was 10°C, while at present this index is -2-+2°C. And this happens in the absence of the anthropogenic factor.

Moreover, for the last 700,000 years, there were observed quasiperiodic variations in CO₂ content with a cycle equal approximately to 100,000 years (that was established in the course of measuring of gas concentration in air bubbles sealed in ice cores extracted in Antarctica from different depths) and conditioned by precession of the Earth's rotation axis**. In the period of time under consideration (700,000 years), concentrations of carbon dioxide changed from 190 to 290 ppm in the course of each 50,000 years, but the present-day 370 ppm were not observed in any of the tiny "witnesses" of the former atmospheric composition. It means that for the last 100 years there took place additional growth of carbon dioxide content from 290 to 370 ppm. I would like to mention here that the advance of glacier epochs on the Earth coincided with a decrease of CO₂ content in the atmosphere, while the climate warming—with its growth.

In addition, according to the data of RAS Corresponding Member Viktor Neiman and Vladimir Byshev, Dr. Sc. (Phys. & Math.), from our institute, in the last decade in a number of regions of the Earth there appeared zones, where temperature and pressure changes take place contrary to the general tendency to warming.

— What are the most ponderable natural mechanisms of periodic changes in the planet's climate?

— Of great importance are 11-year cycles of solar activity. The 60-year cycles play also an important role; they are connected with the influence of giant planets (Neptune and Jupiter): it shows itself by change of an average annual distance from the Earth to the Sun and accordingly, of the quantity of solar energy we get. Such conclusion was made by Ivan Frolov, Dr. Sc. (Geogr.), Director of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (St. Petersburg) with his colleagues and Oleg Sorokhtin, Dr. Sc. (Phys. & Math.), from our institute. Besides, reflection of solar radiation and heat

* See: G. Golitsyn, "Methane... and Hothouse Effect", Science in Russia, No. 6, 2002.-Ed.

**See: V. Kotlyakov, "Environment, Its Past and Future: Glaciology Bears Witness", Science in Russia, No. 1, 2001.-Ed.

absorption become temporarily (from several months to several years) different due to volcanic activity with emissions of solid microparticles and various gases.

— Different climate-forming factors, including anthropogenic ones, act simultaneously. Is it possible to take into account the contribution of each of them and to forecast a total effect?

— In this case we use mathematical modeling in combination with a system of simultaneous equations of hydrodynamics, heat and mass transfer and physico-chemical processes in the ocean and the atmosphere with account of their interaction with dry land and periodicity of solar activity.

Specialists engaged in modeling of climatic processes use Reynolds' (Navier Stokes)* three-dimensional differential equations taking into account gravity forces of Coriolis**. To include in calculations the parameters of heat exchange and friction between air and liquid, air and solid phase, we use empirical formulas with regard to a real topography of the bottom and land. Today, in order to accomplish the final objective, the whole surface of the planet is divided into dozens of millions of cells sized 10-100 km horizontally and approximately 0.1-1 km vertically, and on this three-dimensional grid, covering a certain volume of the atmosphere, we look for a solution of the said equations using numerical codes for supercomputers. The smaller the cell, the more powerful equipment is needed for information reading, the more accurate information is obtained.

Initially scientists faced the problem of calculating daily and seasonal changes of different climatic indices with 10 min spacing. Parameters, which determine factors of phase transfer and interaction (ocean, land, atmosphere), were selected in line with the known history of changes in mean temperatures, pressure and precipitation. At the second stage of work, we received a prognosis of climate evolution under different scenarios of anthropogenic emission of CO₂. According to this model, the climate warming is expected, namely, the global temperature increases by 1°C by 2030 and by 2-4°C (depending on the growth rate of CO₂ in the atmosphere) by 2100, and its maximum growth on the land and in high latitudes (in Arctic Regions by 2°C by 2030 and by 7.5°C by 2100). The same calculations show an increased amount of precipitation in high latitudes and a decreased amount in the subtropics.

In several years it will be possible to formally improve the calculation accuracy, as new computers will be able to master more detailed grids with billions of cells sized 1-10 km horizontally and 10-100 m vertically. But reliability of the obtained results will not change essentially. The point is that at the present time the balance and circulation of CO₂ in the nature are not sufficiently substantiated, in particular, the growth of its processing by the green mass of the ocean and land with a rise in temperature. Besides, introduction of even a tenfold detailed grid (10 km x 10 km x 100 m) will fail to take into account fine gradient zones, which exist in abundance in the ocean and affect heat transfer. Moreover, tenfold scaling-up will call for thousandfold increase of calculation volumes and use of a fantastic supercomputer. This problem can be solved only after we learn to identify and resolve "singularities" in the ocean and take accurately into account the energy of mesoscale currents, which can be considered as a large-scale "turbulence". The latter has different horizontal and vertical sizes and greatly affects heat and mass exchange of the ocean and atmosphere.

Finally, essential mathematical modernization is needed for better reliability of results. After all, intensity of the global temperature growth (1°C for dozens of years or 10^-4 °C/day) is negligible as compared with the intensity of daily (up to 10°C/day) and seasonal (10^-1 °C/day) temperatures. The above-described calculations are carried out with a small interval (t = 10 min). The forecast for 30 years will call for several millions of such time "steps", which will lead to error accumulation and rather protracted work operations. To solve this problem, it is necessary to apply the averaging method suggested by Academician Nikolai Bogolyubov***.

—In the course of time we will learn, which of the current forecasts (global warming or cooling) is correct. When the mankind faces real changes, how will science be helpful?

—Science has to assist in adaptation of society to changing climatic conditions, whether it is warming or cooling. For even insignificant temperature variations will affect natural circulation of substances and biological systems, including vital activity of morbific microorganisms, and require special measures in permafrost areas. New approaches to energy consumption will be needed too. By the way, today our country consumes 2 t of industrial energy (in oil equivalent) per capita, which is considerably less than European and American indices, and make up 4-4.3 and 8.7 t respectively.

The most important thing for professionals is to accumulate knowledge of the life on our planet and, in particular, of interaction between the ocean and atmosphere. Without this basis any, even most expensive practical measures will turn into a complete fiasco.

* Reynolds' equations describe the time-averaged current of liquid. Their specificity (as compared with initial equations of Navier Stokes) lies in introduction of new unknown functions, which characterize seeming turbulent stresses. According to Reynolds, randomly changing current characteristics (speed, pressure, density) are substituted by sums of averaged and pulsating components.-Ed.

** Coriolis force is a force of inertia, whose action in a rotating system of coordinates (on the planet's surface) is used by an observer to explain a deviation in the movement of objects from a rectilinear trajectory. It is so named after French physicist Gaspard Gustave de Coriolis, who was the first to describe this phenomenon. This force determines a rotating direction of cyclone vortexes: air masses, which tend rectilinearly from high-pressure areas to low-pressure atmospheric areas, twirl like a spiral.-Ed.

***See: D. Shirkov, "Bogolyubov Lessons", Science in Russia, No. 4, 2009.-Ed.