Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are often referred to as storerooms containing a wide variety of mineral resources. The mineral resources of these countries are assessed as significant, and sometimes even unique, not only within the Central Asian region, but also on a global scale. One of the most important resources in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan is natural gas.

Rich natural gas deposits are one of the main hopes of these countries not only for successfully overcoming the transition period and modernizing their industries, but also for further successful economic development.

In this regard, the problem of the most accurate assessment of gas reserves in their territory is extremely important. The relevance of this issue is obvious both for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which are seeking to attract investment funds in gas complexes, and for potential investors.

1. UZBEKISTAN

The fuel and energy resources of Uzbekistan, without any exaggeration, can be described as unique ¹ . According to forecasts of analytical centers of the world's leading oil companies, Uzbekistan's oil and gas reserves significantly exceed the similar resources of all other Central Asian republics combined.

Uzbekistan is the only CIS country where gas production has consistently increased over the years ^of reforms2 and amounted to 58 billion cubic meters in 2001 (see table 1). This is the highest rate among the Central Asian states. In 1995-2001.

Uzbekistan ranked second in the CIS after the Russian Federation in terms of natural gas production. The republic is one of the top ten gas producing countries in the world.

An important factor in attracting foreign investors to the republic's gas industry is the overall assessment of the country's gas resources. Uzbekistan ranks 13th in the world in terms of free natural gas reserves, ahead of such gas exporting countries as Canada, the Netherlands and Norway ^.3

By the beginning of 1997, 134 gas fields containing industrial reserves had been explored in Uzbekistan. Most of the reserves are free gas, and the rest is associated gas, i.e. dissolved in oil and contained in the gas caps of oil fields.

Currently, gas production in Uzbekistan is carried out at 52 fields, of which two - Gazli and Shurtan - are classified as unique. The total proven reserves of 82 undeveloped fields amount to 551 billion cubic meters. m. 48 of them are prepared for development, the largest of them - Kandym-contains more than 150 billion cubic meters. m.

When assessing the gas resources of a particular region, it is important to take into account the degree of depletion of deposits. In Uzbekistan, 98% of the total gas produced is extracted from 12 large deposits ^.4 The depletion of reserves here varies very widely - from 1.8% in Urga to 87.8% in Gazli. On average, this indicator is 46% for the group of main deposits ⁵ . In the near future, they will retain the status of major gas production facilities, because their remaining reserves (1,635 billion cubic meters) significantly exceed those contained in the remaining developed (97 billion cubic meters) and non-developed (708 billion cubic meters) gas fields. Although the rate of depletion of the main deposits in Uzbekistan is quite high, Uzbekistan has a certain advantage in comparison with other Central Asian states. Thus, the depletion of 17 of the 33 main gas fields in Turkmenistan is 50-90% ^.6

There are six major oil and gas bearing regions in Uzbekistan: Ustyurt, Bukhara-Khiva, South-West Hissar, Surkhandarya, Ferghana, and Karakalpak ⁷ . Statistical data show (see table 2) that most of Uzbekistan's gas reserves are potential, i.e. they require further confirmation. The main potential gas reserves of the republic are concentrated in the Ustyurt and Bukhara-Khiva regions, although, as experts say, in general, about 40% of the territory of the republic is promising from the point of view of industrial oil and gas potential.

The bowels of this territory have significant geological features.-

Table 1

Natural gas production in Uzbekistan (bcm)

Source: www.rusenergy.com

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strategic forecast resources of hydrocarbons, which ensures the expediency of activating the search for new deposits. To this end, the Uzbekneftegaz National Corporation presented geological documentation for six blocks with a total area of 51.7 thousand square kilometers within Karakalpakstan, in the eastern part of the Ustyurt plateau and the southern coast of the Aral Sea. Geologically, all the proposed blocks are located on the continuation of the structural zone, which is adjacent to large deposits in Kazakhstan. Four of them contain accumulations of hydrocarbons, mainly gas.

When assessing the feasibility of investing in the republic's gas industry, it is important for potential investors to ask how much natural gas Uzbekistan is able to supply to the foreign market.

Most of the gas produced (about 90%) is used for domestic needs ⁸ . In terms of its per capita consumption, Uzbekistan is slightly behind Russia and ahead of Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. In 1997, gas use by the population increased 3-fold compared to 1991 and exceeded 34% of the total. The remaining demand for gas was distributed between the industrial sector (57%) and utilities (9%). By 1997, the average level of natural gas supply reached 47% in rural areas and 82% in urban areas.

The volume of gas exports in Uzbekistan is low9 and in 1997 amounted to ⁶ billion cubic meters. m. Of these, 4 billion cubic meters were exported to Kazakhstan, more than 1 billion cubic meters to Kyrgyzstan, 0.6 billion cubic meters to Tajikistan and a small amount to Turkmenistan. In 2000, it increased to 9 billion cubic meters (for comparison, in the same year, the export of Turkmen gas amounted to 28.8 billion cubic meters).

Gas delivery to local consumers and other countries is provided by a well-developed gas pipeline system. As of January 1, 1997, the total length of the main gas pipelines in the country was 12.7 thousand km, with a potential capacity of 20 billion cubic meters per year.

Convenient geographical location of the Ustyurt region, through the territory of which

Table 2

Source: www.rusenerdy.com

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The "Central Asia - Center" and "Bukhara - Ural" gas pipelines with access to the markets of Western Europe are being built, which makes it possible to supply Uzbek and transit gas to the states of Transcaucasia, the southern regions of Russia, and Ukraine. It is expected that by 2010, the volume of commercial gas supplies in the entire gas transmission system of Uzbekistan will increase to 70 billion cubic meters. m per year.

In general, Uzbekistan's gas resources contain significant potential for attracting foreign investment in this area.

2. TURKMENISTAN

After gaining national independence in December 1991, Turkmenistan began to develop an active energy policy based on the concept "On the Development of the oil Industry of Turkmenistan until 2020". The entire program of the country's future prosperity is based on expected revenues from the export of hydrocarbons.

The authors of the long-term concept for the development of Turkmenistan's oil and gas complex (including Russian scientists and foreign experts) confirmed the assumption that there are significant hydrocarbon resources in the Amu Darya and Caspian basins - the main storehouses of Turkmenistan ^.10 This conclusion was made based on the analysis of 5,5 thousand km of exploration and production wells, 115 thousand km of seismic profiles and 2700 logging diagrams. According to the authors of this program, Turkmenistan has a potential of 15.53 trillion cubic meters of gas and 6.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas. tons of oil.

It should be noted that the assessment of Turkmenistan's hydrocarbon reserves by various experts is quite contradictory. Thus, Chairman of the State Customs Committee "Turkmenneftegaz" B. Rejepov said that the energy potential of Turkmenistan is estimated at 10 - 12 billion rubles. tons of oil and 20 trillion cubic meters of gas, which is 35% of the world's gas reserves ¹¹ . According to other estimates, the proven reserves of Turkmen oil are 3 billion cubic meters. tons and gas - 4.8 trillion cubic meters ¹² , and the projected resources of the entire Turkmen shelf in the Caspian Sea - 6.5 billion cubic meters. tons of oil and 5.5 trillion cubic meters of gas ¹³ .

Western analysts seriously question this kind of data, considering it fairly overstated. Experts emphasize that most of the reserves are of a predictive nature and do not have the status of final conclusions ¹⁴. In 2000, experts of the American company Western Geophysics presented the results of their research on the republic's hydrocarbon reserves, according to which their total volume could theoretically reach 34 billion rubles. tons of oil equivalent, including $ 12 billion. t - liquid hydrocarbons and 22.8 trillion cubic meters-gaseous ¹⁵ . However, they stressed that this is only the most preliminary data, which requires further confirmation. Only the Turkmen sector of the Caspian shelf has been surveyed in more or less detail, although the results obtained for this area also need to be clarified.

In this regard, it should be mentioned that there is an acute shortage of financial resources for geological exploration in Turkmenistan. This has led to a sharp decline in drilling volumes in recent years, which makes it impossible to confirm the presence of declared hydrocarbon reserves. Thus, in the gas production industry, there is a significant lag in the raw material base (explored areas) from the declared reserves and goals set for the industry in the coming years and prospects. Thus, by the end of 2000, 19 new fields with a total volume of only 337 billion cubic meters were prepared for development, while over 1,600 billion cubic meters of gas were produced from existing fields ^.16

Nevertheless, despite all the inconsistency of these estimates, it is indisputable that the country ranks third in the world in terms of energy reserves, ¹⁷ and this circumstance puts forward a young Central Asian state.-

Table 3

Gas production and export in Turkmenistan in 1993-2001 (in billion cubic meters)

Source: www.rusenergy.com

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It is one of the leading energy exporters to world markets.

The collapse of the USSR adversely affected Turkmenistan's natural gas production and export volumes. The level of gas production achieved in the 1980s (86-90 billion cubic meters). m per year), when Turkmenistan ranked fourth in the world in this indicator, was irretrievably lost. Since 1992, gas production and export in the republic has been falling rapidly. The peak of the crisis in the fuel and energy sector occurred in 1998, when the volume of gas production was only 13.2 billion cubic meters (4.8 times less than in 1993), and exports - 1.8 billion cubic meters (31 times less than in 1993) (see Table 3).

The main reason for this global crisis was a sharp reduction in investment in supporting the industry, which was caused, in turn, by the lack of agreement between Moscow and Ashgabat on the terms of gas purchases offered by Gazprom ^.18 An indirect reason for this crisis was the lack of a gas pipeline system in Turkmenistan, through which Turkmen gas could be delivered to the countries of the Middle East and Western Europe.

The lack of investment caused not only a decrease in gas production and exports, but also a significant reduction in the number of operating wells. If in the early 1990s there were about 3,000 of them in Turkmenistan, by 2000-622, i.e. almost 80% less than ¹⁹ .

Turkmenistan's gas production and exports have been growing since 1999. However, the growth rate, as statistics show, is low. Moreover, the achieved figures are much lower than planned for 2001: gas production was expected to reach 87 billion cubic meters, and gas exports-63 billion cubic meters.

Currently, 33 gas, gas condensate and oil and gas fields are being developed in Turkmenistan. Two state - owned concerns, Turkmengaz and Turkmenneftegaz, are engaged in gas production in the republic²⁰ . Turkmengaz Group accounts for 85% of the total gas production in the republic, while Turkmenneftegaz SCC accounts for 15%.

Turkmengaz Group manages 25 fields, 17 of which are developed by 50-90%, which is quite a high percentage and does not serve to attract investors. Only 8 fields developed by Turkmengaz Group are very promising. The largest of them are Dovletabad and Malay, which provide the main share of exports. Another large field - Shatlyk (developed since 1975) - is in a decaying stage, and gas from there is mainly used for domestic consumption (about 10 billion cubic meters). m per year). Most of the deposits located in the northern part of the country are also in a decaying stage.

Another important problem, in addition to the high rate of depletion of a large number of developed fields in Turkmenistan, is the problem of purity of produced gas. There are a number of fields where 1 cubic meter of gas accounts for at least 1% of hydrogen sulfide, and according to international standards, it should not exceed 0.008%. Bringing the purity of gas to the required level requires serious financial injections, as it is associated with significant costs for the appropriate equipment, maintenance, etc.

Finally, another serious problem is that a significant part of oil and gas fields are located at great depths-from 3.5 km. In the republic practically

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there is no equipment for such drilling. Only recently, an agreement was signed with Siemens (Germany) for the supply of such equipment. In addition, China has started exporting deep drilling equipment to Turkmenistan. It should be noted that in 1998, Ashgabat rejected Russia's offers to supply equipment for deep drilling to pay for imported gas, arguing that Turkmenistan primarily needs currency, not equipment.

Turkmenistan has five major oil and gas provinces: Amu Darya, South Caspian, Central Caspian, Deryalik-Dovdan and Surkhan-Vakhsh. Of these, the main oil and gas provinces are considered to be the Amu Darya and South Caspian ²¹ .

The Amu Darya river is located in the central and eastern part of Turkmenistan and forms the raw material base of the country's gas industry. It contains more than 64% of the republic's gas reserves. Over the past five years, drillers of the Turkmenburgaz Trust have discovered 17 new gas fields in the right-bank part of the Amu Darya basin. The largest of them are Beshir, Garashsyzlyk, Bitaraplyk, Seyrap, Zorkak, Sarykum. According to Turkmen experts, their total reserves amount to at least 150 billion cubic meters. In the future, this territory will become a major supplier of Turkmen energy resources to world markets. Sovietbad, one of the most promising gas fields, is also being developed in the South Caspian province.

The availability of opportunities for gas transportation is certainly a factor influencing the attraction of foreign investment in the gas industry of Turkmenistan. In Turkmenistan, it is implemented and controlled by the Turkmengaz Group of Companies and the Turkmenneftegaz State Customs Committee. 7,500 km of gas pipeline lines run through the country, but they are mainly used for internal gas transportation. The gas pipeline systems of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia are used for export transit.

In 1997, Turkmenistan and Iran commissioned the Korpeje-Kurt Kui pipeline. Ashgabat plans to use this pipeline not only for export gas supplies to Iran, but also as a link in future pipelines, the construction plans of which are currently being discussed in Turkmenistan.

There is no doubt that there is a potential for gas resources in the republic, but its development requires significant investments. Moreover, investments should be attracted not only in the development of gas and gas condensate fields, but also in geological exploration, the supply of necessary equipment, and the construction of gas pipelines.

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